ANNUAL REPORT FLIPPING BOOK.pdf

:H KDG WR IDFH IRRG SULFH VKRFNV LQ and 2011 which were in part responses to actual weather and climate events, the latter DOVR VXEVHTXHQWO\ EHLQJ UHODWHG WR SROLWLFDO LQVWDELOLW\ LQ 1RUWK $IULFD 'XULQJ WKHUH has been widespread coverage of a forecast HYHQW DQ (O 1LxR ZKLFK KDV LQWURGXFHG VRPH instability and speculation into markets. (O 1LxR LV IXQGDPHQWDOO\ D ZDUPLQJ RI WKH VXUIDFH ZDWHUV LQ WKH (DVWHUQ 3DFLÀF 2FHDQ typically lasting a few months to a year, but its UDPLÀFDWLRQV IRU XQXVXDO ZHDWKHU FRQGLWLRQV are felt more widely around the world, although OHVV FOHDUO\ LQ WKH 8. $V , ZULWH WKLV (O 1LxR LV VWLOO VWUXJJOLQJ WR VKRZ LWV KDQG DV RI PLG 'HFHPEHU +RZHYHU ZH VKRXOGQ·W be surprised by the impact of this forecast EHFDXVH SUHYLRXV DFWXDO (O 1LxR HYHQWV KDYH UHVXOWHG LQ H[WUHPH ZHDWKHU HYHQWV DURXQG WKH ZRUOG ODVWLQJ PDQ\ PRQWKV D JRRG H[DPSOH EHLQJ WKH (O 1LxR )LJXUH WKH ODUJHVW VXFK HYHQW LQ UHFHQW WLPHV (O 1LxR events tend to increase globally averaged WHPSHUDWXUH :KLOH (O 1LxR FRQGLWLRQV WHQG WR GLVFRXUDJH KXUULFDQH LQWHQVLÀFDWLRQ LQ WKH 1RUWK $WODQWLF ZH QHYHUWKHOHVV HVWLPDWH WKDW

total global insured and uninsured losses associated with natural catastrophes are KLJKHU LQ PRGHUDWH (O 1LxR \HDUV 8QSLFNLQJ the overall effects on food and agriculture of DFWXDO DQG IRUHFDVW (O 1LxRV LV D FKDOOHQJH now that we also have to factor in market UHVSRQVHV ¶EHIRUH WKH HYHQW· V\QWKHVLV RI ODWHVW VFLHQWLÀF ÀQGLQJV E\ WKH ,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO 3DQHO RQ &OLPDWH &KDQJH ,3&& 7KHUH DUH PDQ\ JOREDO FOLPDWH PRGHOV developed by research institutes around the ZRUOG ZKLFK DUH LQWHU FRPSDUHG DV SDUW RI this process, producing a range of possible IXWXUHV 'HVSLWH WKH XQFHUWDLQW\ RQH VREHULQJ UHVXOW VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH LV WKDW D YHU\ KLJK proportion of these models agree that air WHPSHUDWXUH ZLOO LQ WKH SHULRG LQFUHDVH WR OHYHOV ZKLFK H[FHHG W\SLFDO FXUUHQW DGDSWDWLRQ VWUDWHJLHV GHÀQHG DV EH\RQG WZR standard deviations higher than the baseline SHULRG 7KH VWUHQJWK RI WKLV PRGHO consensus can easily be overlooked, but at our peril. Returning to future climate change then, VDZ WKH SXEOLFDWLRQ RI IXUWKHU

6R ZKDW DERXW WKH PRUH ORFDO ZHDWKHU HYHQWV RI " :LQWHU ZDV LQFUHGLEO\ VWRUP\ PLOG DQG ZHW LQ WKH 8. DQG UHFRYHU\ IURP ÁRRGLQJ VWLOO FRQWLQXHV $SULO OLNH VR PDQ\ RWKHU UHFHQW $SULOV LQ WKLV EUDYH QHZ era, was another pale shadow of the long term average, in this case markedly warm across WKH 8. DQG DOVR GU\ DFURVV ODUJH SDUWV RI WKH arable growing region (and similar in that UHVSHFW WR $SULO DQG 6SDUH D WKRXJKW IRU FROOHDJXHV DFURVV the Channel who had to endure hail the size RI WHQQLV EDOOV DQG DVVRFLDWHG ÁRRGLQJ RQ -XQH WK DQG WK LQ )UDQFH *HUPDQ\ DQG WKH Netherlands. Nevertheless, spring, summer and autumn have overall been relatively kind WR 8. FURSV IURP D ZHDWKHU SHUVSHFWLYH DQG KDV DOVR SURYLVLRQDOO\ EHHQ D JRRG \HDU IRU 8. ZLQH SURGXFWLRQ ² FKHHUV

Figure 2:

PHDQ WHPSHUDWXUH

(standard deviation UHODWLYH WR ORQJ WHUP average)

0

1

2

h2sum2150 Value

Figure 3: 7KH QXPEHU RI JOREDO climate models, from a JURXS RI VLPXODWLQJ a change in mean temperature which is beyond typical planned adaptation thresholds (more than two standard deviations above the EDVHOLQH PHDQ E\

0 1 2

5 6

8

10 11 12

15 16

%URZQ &R

$QQXDO )RFXV 5HSRUW 19